Does regional integration improve economic resilience? Evidence from urban agglomerations in China

Under the dual pressure of "slow-burn" challenges and acute shocks, increasing economic resilience is gaining attention around the world to ensure the security and stability of economic activities. With the goal of achieving sustainable development, the China is exploring an innovative, coordinated, green, open, shared and secure development path for the regional economy. Using panel data for 241 cities at the prefecture level and above in China from 2010 to 2019, this research considers urban agglomeration planning as a quasi-natural experiment of regional integration and use a difference-in-differences method to explore the effect of regional integration on economic resilience. The results show the following. 1) Regional integration does improve economic resilience after various robustness tests. 2) The policy effect of regional integration on economic resilience varies by time, region, and urban structure. 3) Urban size structure and industrial structure are important ways in which regional integration affects economic resilience. Our findings enrich the theoretical study of the relationship between regional integration and economic resilience and provide a new path to improve regional economic resilience and achieve sustainable development.

Asymmetric effects and volatility transmission from metals markets to solar energy stocks: Evidence from DCC, ADCC, and quantile regression approach

Detrimental environmental repercussions have recently given rise to an interest in green investments. Although solar energy stocks are appealing assets for ethical investors, little is known about their dynamic correlations and linkages with metal (silicon, lithium, and rare earth) markets, particularly during economic events which is essential for hedging effectiveness and asset allocation. This study investigates the nexus between metal markets, oil price volatility (OVX), market sentiments (VIX), and solar energy markets using DCC, ADCC models, and the quantile regression approach. The results show both symmetric and asymmetric shock spillover between metals markets, VIX, OVX, and solar energy markets which are more prominent during COVID-19 pandemic, US-China trade frictions, and Russian invasion of Ukraine. For portfolio management, the hedging effectiveness of lithium stocks is highest, followed by silicon and rare earth metals. However, the hedge ratios are time-varying, and the variability is highest during US-China trade frictions. The quantile regression estimates reveal that lithium market is the most persistent determinant of solar energy stocks followed by silicon market even after segregating the periods into Paris Agreement and COVID-19 pandemic. Thus, lithium and silicon are driving markets of solar energy markets and can be a cause of omitted variable bias if stay unobserved. Nonetheless, there is little influence of VIX, rare earth metals, and OVX on solar energy stocks. Lastly, the estimations of threshold regression suggest that market sentiments change the association between metal markets and solar energy markets after the VIX reaches a certain threshold level. © 2023

Can the Social Network Hinder the Impact of COVID-19 on Economic Uncertainty? New Evidence from China

This study investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic uncertainty and its spillover network based on social network analysis. The study constructs the inter-provincial Chinese economic uncertainty spillover network using a mixed frequency dataset and the provincial social network using microblog user data. Furthermore, the temporal exponential random graph model is used to analyze the impact of COVID-19 and social network during three periods. The results show that the COVID-19 pandemic significantly affects China's provincial economic uncertainty and social network significantly hinders economic uncertainty spillover networks. The inhibitory effect of social networks on uncertainty spillover network has regional heterogeneity, which is more significant in provinces severely affected by the pandemic and strictly controlled. © 2023 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

Measurement and prediction of systemic risk in China?s banking industry

This research uses a hybrid systemic risk indicator (rSYR) to measure the systemic financial risk of China's banking industry from 2009 to 2019 and combines rSYR with sSYR (new standardized rSYR) to more accurately determine systemic important banks. We also forecast systemic risk in the next period, finding that large-scale banks (such as ICBC, Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, and China Merchants Bank) have high systemic importance. After eliminating the impact of scale, we then pay attention to the possibility of systemic risk brought by some smaller banks (such as Huaxia Bank and Everbright Bank). Through the prediction of systemic risk in the next six months, we also find out that the possibility of systemic risk caused by possible capital shortage brought by Agricultural Bank of China, Ping An Bank, Bank of China and Everbright Bank is more obvious, which is worth paying greater attention.

Development of Wasted Non-woven Fabric Mask (NFM) Disposal Machine

Since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, masks have been widely used as a personal protective equipment (PPE) to prevent respiratory infection. A major type of masks used is non-woven fabric mask (NFM), which is currently classified as domestic waste and mostly disposed to general rubbish bins then eventually sent to the already saturating landfills. Moreover, the contaminated NFM is not disinfected properly during the disposal, which increases the risks of viral transmission and pollutes the environment. To alleviate the existing pressure to the environment, the amount of used NFM being disposed to landfills should be reduced. This paper studied the feasibility of recycling the used NFM and developed a prototype of disposal machine as the primary recycling process. By inserting the used NFM into the disposal machine, the masks can be shredded, disinfected and packed for further recycling processes. © 2022 IEEE.

Stock Markets Reaction to COVID-19: Evidence from Time-Varying Cointegration, Leveraged Bootstrap Causality and Event Analysis br

This paper examined the interconnectedness of COVID-19 and stock markets in some of th e most affected countries-USA, Italy, Spain and Germany. To this end, a time-varying cointegration technique was first employed to examine for the presence of comovementsbetween daily infections and stock market changes. A time-varying wild bootstrap likelihood ratio test was then employed to determine whether COVID-19 is a significant predictor of stock market performance. Lastly, an event study analysis was conducted to investigate the short-term effect of the outbreak on stock market returns. Findings revealed the existence of comovements between COVID-19 infections and stock price indices in all the selected countries. The rejection of the null hypothesis of no predictability was also recorded in all of the countries sampled. The event study analysis revealed that significant negative cumulative abnormal returns were predominant in all the countries. The reactions of the stock markets of the three European Union member countries included in the study to the pandemic are quite similar, suggesting that countries that are regionally and economically integrated are likely to experience relatively similar effects. The USA stock market was the most resilient to the impact of the outbreak

Dynamic spillover effects among international crude oil markets from the time-frequency perspective

This research takes seven representative crude oil markets in the world, decomposes and reconstructs the yield series by CEEMDAN and Fine-to-coarse algorithm, and measures the markets' risk level by applying the DCC-GARCH-CoVaR model. We further construct a network spillover model based on TVP-VAR to investigate the return spillover and risk spillover effects among these oil markets in different time scales. The empirical results are as follows. (1) Integration within the international crude oil market is deepening, and return spillover and risk spillover are at high levels. (2) In the short run, Brent, Tapis, and Bonny crude oil markets are the main net exporters of return spillovers, while in the long run, Brent, WTI, and Dubai crude oil markets are global crude oil price benchmarks. (3) The risk level of each crude oil market under the full sample and high-frequency perspective is generally consistent, and the dynamic spillover effects between markets are relatively close, while the Brent and Tapis crude oil markets are the main net exporters of risk spillovers from the low-frequency perspective. (4) The impact of the same event on the spillover effect is heterogeneous in different time scales. For example, the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020 and the break-up of the "OPEC +” crude oil negotiations reduced the risk spillover level in the short term, but increased the risk spillover level in the long term. © 2022 Elsevier Ltd

Social Distancing Surveillance System via Inverse Perspective Mapping and Fixed-point Quantization

During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, many countries have introduced the social distancing policy in public areas to stop the spread of disease by maintaining a physical distance between people. This paper proposes an Artificial Intelligence (AI)-powered social distancing surveillance system that can detect pedestrians through video surveillance and monitor the social distance between them via Inverse Perspective Mapping (IPM) in real-time. The proposed system was deployed on the devices located at the network edge such as IoT devices and mobile devices to enable real-time response with low data transmission latency. To bypass the restriction on the computational and memory capacity for the edge devices, the proposed system was optimized through fixed-point quantization. From the evaluation results, the optimized models are almost 4 times smaller as compared to the original models. The best trade-off between speed and accuracy can be achieved with a 27.1% improvement in speed and 2% degradation in accuracy.

Assessing the efficiency of the Covid-19 control measures and public health policy in OECD countries from cultural perspectives

Purpose: To identify sources of the success and failure of COVID-19 control measures and develop best-practice public health policy in mitigating the spread of COVID-19, this paper aims to evaluate the efficiency of various combinations of government COVID-19 control measures among OECD countries. This paper also identifies which factors critically influence the efficiency of COVID-19 control measures. Design/methodology/approach: This paper employed two-stage network SBM (slacks-based measure of efficiency) models with variable returns-to-scale and constant returns-to-scale, respectively, among various forms of data envelopment analysis (DEA) models. As a post hoc analysis, the authors used Tobit regression for examining the causal relationship between a nation's cultural dimensions and its COVID-19 control measure's efficiency scores. Findings: The authors found that the pervasive less individualistic and higher uncertainty avoiding culture positively influenced the efficient control of COVID-19 outbreaks since such a culture helped the government impose its mandatory COVID-19 control measures without people's strong resistance to those measures. Originality/value: Many public health policymakers are wondering why COVID-19 control measures are not effective in coping with the COVID-19 outbreaks. This paper helps the government find the most efficient combination of COVID-19 controls measures for curbing the spread of the stubborn coronavirus. This paper is one of the first attempts to identify pandemic risk mitigation factors from a cultural perspective. © 2021, Emerald Publishing Limited.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on hyperacute stroke treatment: Experience from a comprehensive stroke centre in singapore

Background: The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is rapidly evolving and affecting healthcare systems across the world. Singapore has escalated its alert level to Disease Outbreak Response System Condition (DORSCON) Orange, signifying severe disease with community spread. Objectives: We aimed to study the overall volume of AIS cases and the delivery of hyperacute stroke services during DORSCON Orange. Methods: This was a single-centre, observational cohort study performed at a comprehensive stroke centre responsible for AIS cases in the western region of Singapore, as well as providing care for COVID-19 patients. All AIS patients reviewed as an acute stroke activation in the Emergency Department (ED) from November 2019 to April 2020 were included. System processes timings, treatment and clinical outcome variables were collected. Results: We studied 350 AIS activation patients admitted through the ED, 206 (58.9%) pre- and 144 during DORSCON Orange. Across the study period, number of stroke activations showed significant decline (p =0.004, 95% CI 6.513 - -2.287), as the number of COVID-19 cases increased exponentially, whilst proportion of activations receiving acute recanalization therapy remained stable (p = 0.519, 95% CI -1.605 - 2.702). Amongst AIS patients that received acute recanalization therapy, early neurological outcomes in terms of change in median NIHSS at 24 hours (-4 versus -4, p = 0.685) were largely similar between the pre- and during DORSCON orange periods. Conclusions: The number of stroke activations decreased while the proportion receiving acute recanalization therapy remained stable in the current COVID-19 pandemic in Singapore. (Figure Presented).

Investor herding in the china stock market: An examination of chinext

This research investigates the presence and the asymmetric effects of investor herding in the ChiNext market over the period from October 30, 2009, to April 30, 2020, providing an interesting setting for herding analysis that has not yet been covered by the literature. We build our methodology based on Christie and Huang (1995) and Chang et al. (2000) and present empirical results showing that herding strongly exists in the market, even after controlling for the effect of COVID-19. The herding behavior also displays asymmetric effects associated with market conditions, industry, and firm size and is more pronounced in an up market and a bearish context, more prevalent in manufacturing and IT sectors, and stronger for large-and small-size portfolios. The results have investment implications for investors who seek out profitable trading opportunities in the China stock markets and policy implications for the China government that is endeavoring to better regulate its domestic financial markets. © 2020, Institute for Economic Forecasting. All rights reserved.

Correlation of population mortality of COVID-19 and testing coverage: a comparison among 36 OECD countries.

Although testing is widely regarded as critical to fighting the COVID-19 pandemic, what measure and level of testing best reflects successful infection control remains unresolved. Our aim was to compare the sensitivity of two testing metrics - population testing number and testing coverage - to population mortality outcomes and identify a benchmark for testing adequacy. We aggregated publicly available data through 12 April on testing and outcomes related to COVID-19 across 36 OECD (Organization for Economic Development) countries and Taiwan. Spearman correlation coefficients were calculated between the aforementioned metrics and following outcome measures: deaths per 1 million people, case fatality rate and case proportion of critical illness. Fractional polynomials were used to generate scatter plots to model the relationship between the testing metrics and outcomes. We found that testing coverage, but not population testing number, was highly correlated with population mortality (rs = -0.79, P = 5.975 × 10-9vs. rs = -0.3, P = 0.05) and case fatality rate (rs = -0.67, P = 9.067 × 10-6vs. rs = -0.21, P = 0.20). A testing coverage threshold of 15-45 signified adequate testing: below 15, testing coverage was associated with exponentially increasing population mortality; above 45, increased testing did not yield significant incremental mortality benefit. Taken together, testing coverage was better than population testing number in explaining country performance and can serve as an early and sensitive indicator of testing adequacy and disease burden.

USE OF DEXMEDETOMIDINE IN CRITICALLY ILL PATIENTS RECEIVING NONINVASIVE VENTILATION: A META-ANALYSIS OF RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED TRIALS

SESSION TITLE: Advances in the Care of Mechanically-Ventilated Patients SESSION TYPE: Original Investigations PRESENTED ON: October 18-21, 2020 PURPOSE: Psychomotor agitation is one of the reasons for noninvasive ventilation (NIV) failure. Judicious sedation may mitigate agitation and improve patient-ventilator synchrony in patients receiving NIV. Dexmedetomidine is an alpha-2 adrenergic receptor agonist that exhibits sedative, anxiolytic, and analgesic properties. It can provide moderate sedation without compromising the respiratory drive. This study aims to summarize the existing evidence for dexmedetomidine use in patients receiving NIV. METHODS: Studies reviewed were selected based on relevance from a meta-analysis search conducted in Medline, EMBASE, Cochrane library, and Academic Search Elite to include all published randomized controlled trials through April 2020. Prospective studies were selected if they compared dexmedetomidine with other sedative agents or no sedation in patients who require NIV. Review Manager 5.3 (The Cochrane Collaboration) was used for meta-analysis and a random effect model was applied for statistical analysis. RESULTS: Six randomized controlled trials with a total of 505 patients matched the inclusion criteria. Forty-four patients (20.1%) in the dexmedetomidine group and 96 patients (39.8%) in the control group required escalation of therapy from NIV to intubation. Dexmedetomidine infusion significantly reduced the intubation rate (pooled odds ratio, 0.37;95% CI: 0.24-0.58;p<0.0001) and ICU length of stay by 2.9 days (95% CI: -4.38 to -1.44;p =0.0001). However, dexmedetomidine did not change the mortality rate (pooled odds ratio, 0.46;95% CI: 0.1-1.78;p=0.26). Finally, patients who received dexmedetomidine infusion had a lower incidence of delirium (pooled odds ratio, 0.26;95% CI: 0.15-0.45;p=0.003) but were more prone to bradycardia and hypotension. CONCLUSIONS: The present analysis suggests that dexmedetomidine use in patients receiving NIV could mitigate agitation and improve NIV tolerance. For patients who require sedation while receiving NIV, dexmedetomidine may be the preferred sedative agent as it does not carry deleterious effects on ventilatory function. Dexmedetomidine reduces the incidence of delirium but may affect hemodynamic profiles more than other agents. Given the heterogeneity and small sample size of included studies, future large-scale studies are needed to examine the role of dexmedetomidine use in patients receiving NIV. CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: Dexmedetomidine could be the preferred sedative agent for patients who have NIV intolerance due to agitation. Our analysis showed that clinical outcomes of dexmedetomidine use in NIV were encouraging, though further prospective studies are needed to confirm these results. In the era of COVID-19, dexmedetomidine could potentially reduce patients’ need for ventilators and optimize resource utilization. DISCLOSURES: No relevant relationships by Wei-cheng Chen, source=Web Response No relevant relationships by Teressa Ju, source=Web Response No relevant relationships by Chi Chan Lee, source=Web Response No relevant relationships by Hsin-Ti Lin, source=Web Response

Battling COVID-19: critical care and peri-operative healthcare resource management strategies in a tertiary academic medical centre in Singapore.

In December 2019, a cluster of atypical pneumonia cases were reported in Wuhan, China, and a novel coronavirus elucidated as the aetiologic agent. Although most initial cases occurred in China, the disease, termed coronavirus disease 2019, has become a pandemic and continues to spread rapidly with human-to-human transmission in many countries. This is the third novel coronavirus outbreak in the last two decades and presents an ensuing healthcare resource burden that threatens to overwhelm available healthcare resources. A study of the initial Chinese response has shown that there is a significant positive association between coronavirus disease 2019 mortality and healthcare resource burden. Based on the Chinese experience, some 19% of coronavirus disease 2019 cases develop severe or critical disease. This results in a need for adequate preparation and mobilisation of critical care resources to anticipate and adapt to a surge in coronavirus disease 2019 case-load in order to mitigate morbidity and mortality. In this article, we discuss some of the peri-operative and critical care resource planning considerations and management strategies employed in a tertiary academic medical centre in Singapore in response to the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak.